The figure above indicates the forecasted high in orange (with error bar denoting the range of ensemble forecast members), average high for this time of year in orange (dashed line), forecasted low in blue (with error bar), average low this time of year in blue (dashed line), and forecasted wind speed in purple. Note that the wind speed forecast is sustained wind (not gusts), and it is based on only one model (not an ensemble).
High pressure will dominate over the weather pattern over the Southwestern U.S. for the next few days, bringing light wind, mostly clear skies, and warmer-than-normal temperatures. Hurricane Paul is expected to make landfall in the southern Baja of California today, then rapidly weaken as it curves toward the northwest in response to the clockwise rotation of the winds around the Southwestern U.S. high.
A weak upper-level low off the Coast of the Baja of California will tap into some of the moisture from Hurricane Paul as it dissipates. This low will eventually move across Arizona this weekend, bringing some high clouds and breezes this weekend, and possibly a slight chance of showers Sunday – Monday.
Met Mail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once or twice a week via e-mail by the Embry-Riddle Department of Meteorology (http://meteo.pr.erau.edu/). Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Applied Meteorology. Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates!
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Official National Weather Service forecast: