The figure above indicates the forecasted high in orange (with error bar denoting the range of ensemble forecast members), average high for this time of year in orange (dashed line), forecasted low in blue (with error bar), average low this time of year in blue (dashed line), and forecasted wind speed in purple. Note that the wind speed forecast is sustained wind (not gusts), and it is based on only one model (not an ensemble).
The atmosphere will remain moist and unstable each day for at least another week from today. High pressure over New Mexico and Texas will persist, brining moist south to southwest wind across central Arizona. The upper-level winds will be generally from the west as a subtropical jet will remain over Utah until this weekend. By the weekend, the high pressure ridge will expand north into Utah to some extent and a disturbance embedded in the ridge will push northward across Arizona.
Thus, expect a chance of mainly afternoon thunderstorms each day, with a slight increase in thunderstorm probabilities Sunday night through early next week. The storms that develop will be capable of frequent lightning, locally heavy rainfall, and small hail. Storms will tend to drift eastward or northeastward at about 10 mph, although some more organized storms could become stationary or even develop into the wind. Local flooding and runoff of washes is possible in localized areas.
Met Mail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once or twice a week via e-mail by the Embry-Riddle Department of Meteorology (http://meteo.pr.erau.edu/). Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Applied Meteorology. Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates!
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Official National Weather Service forecast: